I'll have a small helping of Crow pie please, thanks.

It looks like, to some degree, I was wrong about Dean's chances. A commenter on dKos said a 60 vote difference was too much. I double checked and they were correct, I accidentially factored Illinois into the Bush camp when Gore won the state in 2000. Whoops.

Barring any other mistakes from yours truly (I really, really did try to check this time, so I don't think I goofed again), if Bush and the Democrat candidate win the same states in 2004 that Bush and Gore won in 2000, Bush would win the electoral college by an 18 vote difference, 278-260. In 2000, this was only a 5 vote difference, 271-266. while my miscalculations help to diminish my point, I still think it's valid. To revise it, the Democratic candidate will need to take a big state away from Bush.

So what big states are up for grabs? Texas is out. Even though we all know Gore actually won the popular vote in Florida for 2000, Bush's bro won't be fuckin around this year.. It's probably out. I have been questioned for assertig that Dean can't win Ohio, and here's my reply: go live in Cincinnati for a year and tell me how you feel. In 2002, Ohio's incumbent GOP governor Taft got 57% of the vote, compared to Hagen's 37%. (His opponent had the voice of a cartoon rat, but that's beside the point.) Most of Hagen's support came from Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and Hagen is the former county administrator. I could be mistaken when I said that Dean couldn't get 30% in Cincinnati. Taking a look at 2002 Congressional results, GOP incumbent Chabot got (only) 65%, but the Democrats are so disorganized in the Nati. They ran a no-name against Chabot whose campaign manager was his dad. I just don't see Dean going over well in Ohio. If we look at cities and counties, Gore took Cleveland/Cuyahoga County, Columbus/Franklin County by a small margin (counties sirrounding Columbus were GOP) plus smaller cities like Toledo, Akron, Youngstown, Dayton, and Toledo. The final total was pretty close, 49% for Bush and 46% for Gore. If Dean were to have a chance in Cincinnati, he needs to solidify a base in Cincinnati to have a prayer of reaching 40% there, he needs to keep the base in Cuyahoga and Youngstown, and he has to get 60% in Columbus. Maybe this is possible. Keeping the smaller cities is great, but if Dean can't carry the three C's, he can't carry Ohio.

Looking to the South, North Carolina has 15 votes, South Carolina has 8. Dean and Kerry can forget about those states, but Edwards is a senator from NC, and Clark may be able to carry them. If the Carolinas can be won, that's 23 votes away from Bush, and victory. So that gives the Democrats some options: focus on the Carolinas or focus on Ohio. Edwards has a better chance of taking the Carolinas then Dean (or even Kerry) has of taking Ohio. Believe me, the Buckeye State GOP is a very well oiled machine, and the fighting in Ohio will be tougher in 2004 because the Bush campaign is also organized and, more importantly, rich. They got the money and the traction, and unless Dean can work some organizational and fund raising magic in Ohio, he's done.

[Sources: jsonline.com, uselectionatlas.org, polstate.com]