The Nightmare Scenario

I’m going to be reporting some kind of old news right now, it happened a couple days ago. But, it’s the holidays and, well, I’m lazy. Fat and lazy now with all this candy…

There was an assassination attempt on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s life on Christmas, the second such attempt in the past month. This is some scary shit. In case anybody forgot, Pakistan does have the atomic bomb, mostly because neighboring India also has the atomic bomb, and they have both threatened to use the bombs against each other in their on-again/off-again war for Kashmir. Even though Kashmir has cooled down in the past couple of year, it remains one of the world’s “hot spots,” akin to Israel/Palestine.

The stability of Pakistan’s government is a huge reason why Kashmir remains to be a hot spot. This week’s assassination attempt on President Musharraf proves just how unstable his government is. The attack is nothing to write off; it was staged by two suicide bombers in two separate cars, both packed with explosives, who killed 16 people, injured plenty more, and even managed to damage Murharraf’s presidential limo.

Worse yet, it could have been an inside job. Two media outlets in India have pointed this out.

From Hindustan Times:

The military ruler escaped both attempts unhurt but the attacks have triggered serious concerns about the security situation in Pakistan and specifically [India’s PM] Vajpayee's personal safety during the visit for the SAARC summit [in Islamabad], as they are widely considered "an inside job."

…"This is a very determined attack," a senior official said, commenting on how the twin suicide attackers using separate vehicles nearly succeeded in their attempt.

He said the involvement of elements in the Pakistan Army or Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) could not be ruled out.

G. Parthasarathy, a former envoy to Islamabad, said the attacks could not have been carried out without inside involvement.

"If you take the pattern of the two attacks, they took place in the most heavily militarized portion of any town in Pakistan," he noted.

The Joint Services Headquarters, the army's 10 Crops, in-charge of the city and covert operations in Kashmir, and an active formation called 111 Brigade, which has been behind various military coups in Pakistan and whose commander is handpicked by Musharraf, are all based in Rawalpindi, he noted.

"Therefore, it is inconceivable that such a thing could be done without certain sections within the army conniving or assisting, or both," Parthasarathy told IANS.

And from New Kerala:

However what merits scrutiny is the manner in which the December attacks have taken place. Both the attempts took place in Rawalpindi - seat of the Pakistani military GHQ - and the location of both attacks is in the near vicinity of the headquarters of the Pak Army's 10 Corps, often referred to as the true seat of power in Pakistan. The manner in which terrorist vehicles have been allowed to access the presidential convoy in a zone where even a bird would not remain undetected or unchallenged is instructive. The possibility that some elements within the Pakistani military have either encouraged or tacitly allowed such threats to materialize cannot be ruled out.

It may be recalled that General Zia-ul Haq, General Musharraf's predecessor who as army chief took over power in a coup and ruled for 11 years, died in a mysterious air crash in 1988 that is attributed to disgruntled elements within the Pakistani military. While Musharraf has often asserted that the Pakistani military and the senior corps commanders are fully with him, the reality is that he has had to marginalize senior generals who he felt were against his current policies.

That last sentence reminds me of a Jello Biafra speech after 9/11. He this speech, he said that 30% of Pakistan’s military was pro-Taliban and, hence, pro al-Qa’ida. I haven’t found a link that backs up his figures, but that last sentence should make you think, especially given the history of military power in Pakistan. On this topic, an article from the BBC that was published a day before the this last assassination attempt on Murharraf discusses the tension between Murharraf’s government and the military:

In a country riven by ethnic and sectarian divisions, the military, dominated by the majority Punjabi and influential Pashtun communities, saw itself as the only truly national institution.

Its long stints in power during which civilian institutions were stunted have given it the ability to subvert civilian institutions.

This power grew significantly after military dictator General Zia ul-Haq helped US President Ronald Reagan's war against Soviet forces in Afghanistan.

At this time Islamists secured their position in the elite and encouraged their cadres to join the army as officers.

This resulted in a polarisation between religious and secular schools that would divide the force for years.

Pervez Musharraf's coup in 1999 strengthened the secular tendencies in the army, but has not guaranteed its permanence.

The domestic political consequences of Islamabad joining the war on terror, the withdrawal of Inter Services Intelligence support from the Taleban and militants fighting in Kashmir, and the sectarian violence across Pakistan, mean that national politics remains febrile, and stability fragile.

The army's hold is being contested in many areas, and this is often viewed by the establishment as a threat to national integrity.

Given the history of coups, President Musharraf and his team will do everything they can do under the law to erase the symptoms if not the malaise itself.

Hey, not to be a conspiracy theorist, but we have information from reliable sources that that this assassination attempt would had to have been an inside job, and this article from the BBC highlights the tension between Murharraf and the Pakistani military. That’s called a motive.

Also published a day before the assassination attempt is this editorial from Pakistan’s Daily Times, aptly titled, “Stability or instability ahead?”

This is a problem. This last thing the world needs is one of the hot spots flaring up to become a full-fledged war. That’s exactly what could happen if there is another military coup in Pakistan, since Murharraf seems to have plenty of opposition against his policies: peace with India, pro-War on Terrorism, anti al-Qa’ida. There’s reason to believe that the two attempts on Murharraf’s life this month were inside jobs born of out of the tension between his government and the Pakistani military, opposition political parties, or both.

If there is a successful military coup on the future, Pakistan’s new leader will be anti-India, anit-American, and pro al-Qa’ida. And he’ll have the atomic bomb.

I worry about this more then I worry about Iraq, North Korea, Afghanistan, and Israel. Combined. This political instability makes Kashmir the hottest of the world’s hot spots. This places the possibility of nuclear war dangerously close to becoming reality.

Oh, I forgot to mention that al-Qa’ida has setup camps in western Pakistan, close to their border with Afghanistan. Al-Qa’ida having a presence inside Pakistan should be an assumed, but one has to wonder how much of an influence al-Qa’ida has on Pakistani politics, and within the Pakistani military.

When the Bush administration raised the terror alert level to orange this week, they cited that “chatter” had increased. The administration’s critics, myself included, believe that Bush had the alert level raised because a few lies were about to blow up in his face, like the big lie he told about how we “captured” Saddam. (Psst, Saddam was actually a prisoner of the Kurds, and our intelligence or military prowls had nothing to do with his capture.) But given the political instability in Pakistan, the presence of al-Qa’ida, and a near-successful assassination attempt on President Murharraf, this makes me question my fellow critics. Suppose the “chatter” did exist when the alert level was raised, and this is what al-Qa’ida was chattering about?

It gives you something to think about, doesn’t it?

While Bush continues to fight his quagmire of a war in Iraq, mislabeling it as being part of the “War on Terrorism,” the next battle against the terrorists may be in Pakistan. Essentially, Bush is asleep at the wheel, fighting a foolhardy war in Iraq that solves nothing while al-Qa’ida may have almost succeeded in their ambitions of obtaining a nuclear weapon just a couple of days ago.

We’re still being led by an idiot. Let’s hope we survive until next November so we can throw him out of office before his ignorance leads us to our destruction.