Lazy Saturday Discussion Thread

Last night, I had dinner with a pretty smart and well studied guy. He knows like five languages or something, travels to the Far East frequently, etc. We got into a discussion about Iran, Israel, and nuclear weapons.

He's concluded that Iran already has the bomb. The reason why American and Israeli intelligence can't be sure is because Iran has modeled their nuclear program off Israeli's, systematically hiding things in the desert so it can't be destroyed with one lone bombing run. They've learned from Saddam's mistakes in the 80s, when he centralized Iraq's nuclear program. That allowed Israel to take it out in one airstrike, and Saddam's program obviously never recovered.

I mentioned that American intelligence, at least the stuff the general public has access to, does not think that Iran has the bomb yet. He shrugged it off and said our intelligence didn't know when Pakistan or North Korea had the bomb.

Good point. So what do you think, does Iran have the bomb?