Vote Edwards. Now.
Loaded Mouth’s official stance: John Kerry = (Probably) Unelectable
You’re going to have to hear me out for this one, because I’ve probably convinced 90% of my reading audience that I’m nuts with this statement. And honestly, it’s just a hunch I had today that made more sense the more I thought about it. Here’s my reasoning.
While driving to class, I thought about the campaign speech Bush delivered on Monday, attacking Kerry with lines like this:
”The other party's nomination is still playing out. The candidates are an interesting group with diverse opinions: for tax increases and against tax increases; for the liberation of Iraq and against it -- and that's just one senator from Massachusetts.” –Bush, 2/23/04
On Tuesday, I was listening to NPR and they played this line from Bush’s speech and it earned a lot of laughs from the crowd. I have to admit that even I almost laughed. It didn’t dawn on me today just how much of a problem this could potentially be… I hate this fucking guy, yet I almost laughed at this joke. His speech writers set this up to be a joke that a standup comic could use, and Bush even had good comic timing in his delivery. I had to face the facts, Bush just burned Kerry.
This campaign hasn’t started yet, and saying that makes this next statement more pertinent: The polls mean dick. It’s great that currents polls show either Kerry or Edwards could beat Bush in a general election and the man’s approval ratings have taken a dip below 50%, but honestly, this doesn’t mean shit because this campaign hasn’t even started yet. Bush, despite his numerous (and taxpayer funded) photo-op’s and campaign fund raisers, really hasn’t started his campaign yet. For the past few months, Bush has been a sitting duck while multiple Democrat candidates were able to use him as their own personal punching bag, so it only makes sense that his approval ratings would dip. But once you set your focus beyond causal observation, you realize that one thing has been missing from this campaign until now: Bush himself. Bush hasn’t begun to fight.
When Bush starts his campaign, he has two things going for him. One of these is his $104 million (and growing) war chest, which most people have started to take into consideration. But I don’t think anyone has taken the other factor into consideration, and that’s the change in Bush’s personality. If Monday’s speech is any indication, this isn’t the same Bush we are used to seeing. This isn’t the stupid, bumbling man who frequently made up words (“misunderestimated”) and leaned on his lectern, looking like he’s exhausted and about to crack under pressure. 2004’s Bush will be very different from the 2000 version; polished, well-spoken, and sharp as a tack. He’s able to accomplish all this with a Texan accent and his standard fare of being plain spoken, an anti-elitist style of speaking which spits in the face of “intellectualism.” While Kerry has been offering bland, not very original or dynamic statements that talk down on Bush and the Republican Party, Bush is talking like your amusing coworker or next door neighbor, cracking jokes about his competition in the same manner he would use to discuss a football game.
Those of us living in the Northeast (I imagine that’s the majority of my readers) might not get this. This region of the country, on top of being heavily Democratic, is also very Yankee. When we hear a southern accent, we make fun of it. That’s just what we do, I imagine we have done it for the previous 200 years and we’ll do it for the next 200, no matter how many NASCAR tracks they build up here.
I have a unique perspective, sharing my citizenship in the past couple years between New England and the Midwest, living in Cincinnati which is a border city to the South and holds more than a few southern values. I suppose if I never moved to Cincinnati, I wouldn’t get it. I would have heard part of Bush’s speech and said to myself, “God, what a bad attempt at a joke,” make fun of Texas a little bit and switched the channel. I realize that how Bush talks won’t translate up here, but the problem is that it translates to the rest of the country. I’m reminded of a friend I made in Cincinnati, he is 36 and anti-Republican in every sense. He’s old enough to remember what the country was like before Reagan and how uptight people became after he was elected, things just weren’t fun anymore. And he hated Bush, both father and son. But I remember a discussion we had one day we my friend said Bush is the kind of guy you want to invite to a barbeque and have a beer with, talk sports and stuff. This surprised me, because like I said, my friend hates Republicans and thinks Bush is an asshole, but this is the way Bush translated to him.
How can Kerry win against this Bush? Since Iowa, I’ve regarded Kerry as the most electable because of his results in the primaries and how he’s won so many states, though in the back of my mind, I’ve thought that Edwards southern roots make him the more attractive candidate as far as electability is concerned. Now I’m convinced that Edwards is the most electable candidate the Democrats have going for them.
Kerry has two big problems that Bush will exploit in a head-to-head campaign: A Senate voting record that’s a mile long, and the fact that Kerry cannot speak to most Americans. Nobody can imagine grabbing a brewsky with Lurch Kerry and discussing that fucking A-Rod trade. As you read this, Bush’s trolls are looking into Kerry’s past and digging up things to exploit. Since Kerry has been all over the place in his political career, who knows what they’ll find? They are already painting a picture of Kerry being a hypocritical politician, somebody who says one thing and does another. And as far as I’m concerned in some cases, they’re right. Kerry did vote for the war in Iraq, Kerry does take huge sums of money from special interest groups. It’s hypocritical of Bush to point this out, of course, since he’s a “corporation disguised as a human,” to paraphrase Nader. But the fact of the matter is that Bush will portray Kerry as somebody who can’t decide what side of the issue he’s on. It seems to change with public opinion.
I realize there are other things going on in the campaign. Bush continues to stonewall the 9/11 panel, there's still the whole AWOL issue, his immigration policy suggestion with Mexico and, more recently, his call for a Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage could take away votes. The economy is still a wreck if people can't find jobs, and the more unemployed there are the more votes the Democrats get. Bush has hardly done wonders for the country, and I hope that the true, desperate state of the nation becomes his undoing and Kerry can just walk into office. Like I said in my introduction, I'm trying to apply reason to a hunch, and that can be difficult because there are so many factors which could effect this election, some we won't know about until a few months down the road. But I think this much is obvious: Bush could run a spectacular campaign against Kerry.
I don't think Bush can run a better campaign against Edwards, who doesn't have a long Senate voting record. Edwards is also more plain spoken, he would translate better to most people across America. Kerry hasn't has any trouble making himself a popular choice among Democrats, but Democrats are going to coalesce around whoever the candidate eventually is. If even Kucinich won the primaries, the party would form ranks around him. Electability can no longer be judged solely on how many voters a candidate can win over in the Democratic primary, we have to look at which candidate has the best chance win independents, and maybe even a few Republican voters. Right now, the polls say either Kerry or Edwards can do that, but the polls mean dick. Bush hasn't begun to fight yet.
It comes down to this: Bush knows how to talk with most of America. Kerry knows how to talk with most of Massachusetts. His stale oneliners won't have time to grow old when the blitzkrieg of negative attacks by Bush begin, constantly putting him on the defensive. Edwards has the voice, the accent, the looks, and the demeanor to translate to most of America and win the votes of independents. He doesn't have a track record that makes him a sitting duck who is waffling on the issues. He can combat Bush's plain spokeness with the same manner of speaking and positive message.